“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vice President J.D. Vance said in a post-mortem of the midterm results in an X post on Wednesday.
Democrats flipped seven Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. Both Alaska and Mississippi Senate races remain uncalled, though Democrats currently hold razor-thin advantages. Democrats are projected to have nearly 260 House seats, though many races have yet to be finalized.
“The main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” Vance said. “The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.”
One pollster told Vance that voters who supported Trump in 2024 but were planning to vote for Democrats in Tuesday’s elections said the only thing that would cause them to return to the Republican Party is if the war in Iran is ended and the administration focused on the cost of living and inflation, “put America First” and “change[d] our relationship to Israel.”
“Anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you,” Vance said. “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”
Voters said it too.
NBC exit polls showed that just 26 percent of voters said the war was a “minor factor or not a factor.” When asked whether the Trump administration made the right decision or wrong decision on military action against Iran, 63 percent of voters said it was the “wrong decision.” Of these voters 82 percent voted Democrat and 16 percent who voted Republican.
The economic fallout from the war was also a top concern for voters. An October Gallup poll found that gas prices were a top concern for 42 percent of voters, while a Pew Research poll found the economy was a top voting issue for both Republicans and Democrats.
The Iran war disrupted shipping flow in the Strait of Hormuz, which spiked gas prices. The pre-war national average was roughly $2.98 per gallon, and by October it had spiked roughly 43 percent to $4.27 per gallon. Diesel rose roughly 68 percent. The war also contributed to rising grocery prices due to the increase in costs incurred by farmers and ranchers, according to the Center for American Progress.
Vance questioned whether the war was worth “losing the Senate for the next 6 years” and said that ultimately, “everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
