A new poll out this weekend has Democrats fretting over their chances to maintain the White House with the incumbent 80-year-old commander-in-chief.
The results of a swing state survey published by The New York Times on Sunday showed former President Donald Trump leading his 2020 opponent across five tipping-point states in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Trump trails President Joe Biden by a mere 2 points. In 2016, Trump carried the state by a single percent. On the eve of the election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, the RealClearPolitics polling average had the Republican businessman down in the Badger State by more than 6 points.
While Democrats confront red warning lights one year ahead of the next election, anti-Israel demonstrators descended on the White House in a scene reminiscent of the riots from the last months of the Trump administration. Far-left antagonists vandalized gates at the executive mansion and chanted expletives at the president with demands for concessions in the name of so-called “social justice.” Only this time, the White House occupant hails from the same political party as the dissidents. Instead of banners reading “Black Lives Matter,” placards read “Palestinian Lives Matter,” as the left-wing demonstrations represent a rift threatening to tear apart the Democratic Party.
Indeed, Black Lives Matter and Hamas might carry different names, but they represent similar movements.
Last week, Michigan Democrat Congresswoman and far-left “squad” member Rashida Tlaib launched a direct threat at Biden for the president’s refusal to endorse a ceasefire in Israel.
“Mr. President the American people are not with you on this one,” she said in an online clip. “We will remember in 2024.” Tlaib’s video closed with text in all capital letters reading, “Joe Biden supported the genocide of the Palestinian people.”
If Michigan Democrats abandon Biden under Tlaib’s lead, the White House can say goodbye to the state’s 15 electoral votes that have traditionally built the foundation of the party’s Midwestern “Blue Wall.”
“Michigan holds the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation and over 310,000 residents are of Middle Eastern or North African ancestry,” the Associated Press reported Thursday. “Many in the community are pledging to coalesce against Biden’s reelection campaign unless he calls for a ceasefire in the war.”
Democrats are now relying on a cascade of litigation as their Hail Mary effort to tank Trump. The former president is facing an unprecedented 91 state and federal charges across four jurisdictions that could thwart an otherwise triumphant campaign. In 2016, the grand conspiracy to tie Trump to the Kremlin was the Democrats’ “insurance policy” in the case of a Republican victory. In 2024, they’re using a similar playbook. Americans haven’t responded, however, to the litany of charges placed against Trump. With early leads across the nation’s key swing states, prominent Democrats are sounding the alarm.
David Axelrod, a former advisor to President Barack Obama and architect of his historic 2008 victory, reacted to the Times’ poll results on X by recommending Democrats reconsider their incumbent advantage going into 2024.
“The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” he wrote. “Only [Joe Biden] can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
“Democrats Express Deep Anxiety as Polls Show Biden Trailing Trump,” read a New York Times headline covering the paper’s poll conducted with Siena College.
At the same time, Democrats remain in disarray over the eruption of conflict between Israel and Hamas, which threatens to upend the entire Middle East. Biden has tried to reassure allies of America’s commitment to the Jewish state, but on this issue, the Democratic Party’s base voters are clearly split. Almost 20 percent of the DNC’s staffers signed a letter demanding the president endorse a ceasefire. A growing number of Democrats in both chambers have begun criticizing Israel, and even the vice president’s stepdaughter is fundraising for Gaza. The Biden administration responded by catering to the vocal pro-Palestinian faction of the president’s party by calling for temporary ceasefires and threatening to veto aid to Israel. Such a veto promises to be unpopular with most Americans, with large majorities in both parties supporting Israel.
The anti-Israel demonstrations, meanwhile, will only antagonize the electorate as the explicitly antisemitic protests showcase an open hatred of Jewish people. In New York City alone, home to the largest Jewish population in America, the police department reported a 164 percent spike in anti-Jewish crime. Students at “elite” American colleges, on the other hand, have vehemently condemned Israel while TikTok feeds anti-Israel content to Americans under 30.
As the Democratic Party flounders over the Middle East crisis, a successful Trump conviction could be their only hope.
“If the former president is convicted and sentenced — as many of his allies expect him to be in the Jan. 6-related trial held next year in Washington, D.C. — around 6 percent of voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they would switch their votes to Mr. Biden,” the Times reported. “That would be enough, potentially, to decide the election.”