A few days before the first presidential debate, Fox News (where I am a contributor) released polling showing that the situation for President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign was so dire that he was down five points in Ohio. Ohio!
Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2016, but now he was down five with just over a month remaining in the race.
Liberal activists were thrilled:
Biden up in Ohio in a Fox News poll.
I’m dead pic.twitter.com/eRI5DxEHom
— Amy Siskind (@Amy_Siskind) September 25, 2020
The result was major news, and journalists made sure to highlight the result. Folks at the Washington Post, MSNBC, New York Times, CNN, Politico, ABC, NBC, and the Cleveland Plain Dealer made a big deal about it.
The Los Angeles Times’ Washington bureau chief called it “v[ery] bad news” for Trump. “The big standout number in this new round of Fox News polls is Biden up by 5 in Ohio,” wrote a Daily Beast editor.
President Barack Obama easily won the state in 2008, more narrowly in 2012, so it’s definitely up for grabs by either candidate.
In any case, Fox News reported Wednesday that its polls showed a dramatic eight-point shift toward Trump and away from Biden. They say that their poll now shows Trump winning the state that Biden was up five points in less than a month prior.
The polling change is reflected in other polls as well. For the first time in four months, Trump is ahead in the Real Clear Politics average, by less than one point. Trump and Clinton traded places in the RealClearPolitics average of polls four years ago, with Trump eventually winning the state by more than eight points.