Apparently, Donald Trump recently had a meeting with some senior military officers that included discussion of nuclear weapons, leading the president-elect to tweet that the United States needs to “expand its nuclear capability.”
Since I am an actual expert on nuclear strategy — well, if defined by years of teaching and writing about it, anyway — I started getting a lot of questions about how nuclear weapons are used. Some of these were the understandable questions of curious citizens, some were a little more panicky. I sent out links to some quickly readable articles I’ve done on the subject, primers on both U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. Still, as often happens on Twitter, I was repeating myself a bit.
So I decided to explain nuclear procedures using gifs. I started with an alarmed Joey from “Friends,” which led Sonny Bunch of the Washington Free Beacon to challenge me to explain everything using only gifs from “Friends.”
Challenge accepted.
Let us assume, for the sake of this exercise, that a crisis has gotten out of control, and that Washington is responding to an imminent nuclear attack on the United States. (If we were to use nuclear weapons first — a right we still reserve — nothing would be much different, at least in terms of the process.) Here’s what happens.
Let me try to explain the nuclear procedure with gifs.
First, the President is warned of an enemy launch. pic.twitter.com/8iGbDR9dgx— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
At this point, it is likely the president’s advisors, including the secretary of Defense, are already nearby. They will seek a decision from the president, the only person in the United States authorized to release nuclear weapons.
The President’s advisors, including the SecDef, assemble for a decision pic.twitter.com/lPQCuaTWn3— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
The president must decide whether to retaliate. Time is short. He can decide to launch American weapons out from under the attack, or he can choose to “ride out” the attack and launch what’s left after making an assessment. Either way, he has only minutes to decide. Assuming he wishes to retaliate, he must use the codes that are his alone, chose an attack option, and then direct the secretary of Defense to verify his order to waiting U.S. nuclear forces.
The President makes a go/no-go decision. Assuming he wishes to retaliate, he tells SecDef to verify his order pic.twitter.com/jjM5lpqprQ— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
This order is then sent to the chain of command, including the Joint Chiefs and the U.S. Strategic Command.
This order is then sent to the chain of command at STRATCOM and JCS pic.twitter.com/PzJOHzM1QX— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
Each component of America’s nuclear forces that receives this order will then verify that they have a real, legitimate order, and then they will proceed to execute the options the president has selected.
Each part of the chain below verifies they have a legit, real order, and then they all proceed to execute pic.twitter.com/wOrfOoF1BO— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
There is no countermanding this except by the same process that started it — that is, by the president. The process is built for speed, reliability, and efficiency, not for second-guessing and delay.
There is no countermanding this except by the same process that started it pic.twitter.com/ib6123rn8d— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
Soon thereafter, likely within minutes, the enemy strike arrives. The president, if not already in a secure location, is moved to safety (insofar as is possible) along with other top officials. Whatever’s left of the U.S. deterrent heads out to hit whatever was in the plan that was activated.
At this point, their strike arrives. Whatever’s left of our deterrent heads to hit whatever was in the plan that was activated. pic.twitter.com/TbK1Nl0040— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
If this was a limited strike — that is, if there is anything or anyone left — our forces will report back their condition and try to assess damage of both the enemy’s strikes and our own.
If there is anything or anyone left, our forces report back their condition and try to assess damage of their and our strikes. pic.twitter.com/9F6J9jNAlv— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
What happens next depends on whether there’s a cease-fire and attempt to negotiate. (It will also depend on whether each side’s leaders are in any condition to communicate with each other.)
What happens next depends on whether there’s a cease-fire and attempt to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/wHclU0FsYc— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
If there is no cease-fire, or if one or the other side decides on all-out war, there may no meaningful “victory,” but each combatant might try to destroy as much of the other as possible to delay the enemy’s postwar recovery for as long as possible.
If that gets nowhere, each side might try to destroy as much of the other as possible to delay their postwar recovery. pic.twitter.com/19rcWPLV7S— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
If that happens, as President John F. Kennedy once warned, Americans will not be able to count on the instruments of government and will be on their own. We will all head for the cellar and stay there for a long time.
At which point we’ll head for the cellar and stay there for a long time. pic.twitter.com/Yynrv2yCxE— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016
At that point, we’re pretty much at the end of life in the Northern Hemisphere, and the rest of the planet poisoned for decades to come. The End.
And then we’re all dead. The End. pic.twitter.com/094LiKgB2V
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 22, 2016