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New Polling Shows Virginia Governor’s Race Is A Dead Heat

Virginia GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin

New polling on the Virginia gubernatorial race shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin locked in virtual tie.


New polling on the Virginia gubernatorial race shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin locked in a virtual tie, as the two candidates vie to win control of the governor’s mansion this November.

Conducted by JMC Analytics from June 9-12, the poll shows McAuliffe leading Youngkin at 46 percent to 42 percent, which falls within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided.

According to JMC, the numbers demonstrate McAuliffe is significantly underperforming in the commonwealth when compared to the numbers put up by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. More specifically, JMC notes McAuliffe is not enjoying the levels of support Biden did among independents, college graduates, and voters within the Washington, D.C. media market.

“In the Washington DC media market, McAuliffe only leads by 18 points (53-35%) over Youngkin, compared to Biden’s 29 point lead,” the report read. “Similarly, McAuliffe has a 6 point lead (48-42%) over Youngkin among college graduates (Biden led by 23 points). And while Biden had a one-point (41-40%) lead among Independents, McAuliffe is underwater by 6 points (37-43%) among this demographic.” The polling firm also noted similar patterns are present in the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Recent polling conducted by the conservative firm WPA Intelligence has also shown similar results. According to The Hill, the poll “found McAuliffe leading Youngkin by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, which is within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.” Five percent of voters still remain undecided, however.

“Any pundit not taking the Governor’s race in Virginia seriously could be open to a rude awakening come this fall,” says the polling memo, obtained by The Hill. Youngkin reacted positively to the news on Twitter, stating the headline to the poll “says it all.”

“We’re seeing a groundswell of support all across the Commonwealth, and we’re going to bring a new day to Virginia,” he said. “We have to keep our momentum going!”

If victorious in November, Youngkin would become the first Republican to win statewide office since Bob McDonnell won the governorship in 2009.