It’s beginning to look a lot like 2007, with a new poll showing Hillary Clinton trailing in Iowa.
The latest survey from Quinnipiac, which was released early Thursday morning, shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders winning with 41 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 40 percent. Joe Biden, who has not announced whether he plans to seek the presidency in 2016, comes in third with 12 percent.
Sanders’ base of support comes from voters between the ages of 18 and 34. He leads Clinton by a whopping 47 percentage points among young voters, with 66 percent support compared to only 19 percent for Hillary Clinton. He also leads among self-described liberal Democrats.
Hillary Clinton’s support has fallen off a cliff since Quinnipiac’s last poll of Iowa, which was released on July 2. In that poll, Clinton had a commanding lead of 19 percentage points. At the time, 52 percent of likely Iowa voters preferred her, compared to 33 percent for Sanders. In just two months, Hillary Clinton’s net support has fallen by 20 percentage points.
Although most likely Democratic voters in Iowa believe Clinton is “honest and trustworthy,” that percentage has fallen quite a bit since Quinnipiac’s July survey. In the July poll, 75 percent of respondents said Clinton was honest and trustworthy, compared to only 64 percent in the most recent poll, a significant drop of 11 percentage points. Nearly one-third of likely Democratic caucusgoers told Quinnipiac that Clinton was not honest or trustworthy.
A poll released by Quinnipiac in May showed Clinton leading Sanders by 45 percentage points. The press release announcing that poll said Hillary Clinton had a “early lock on [the] Iowa caucus.” The press release accompanying the new September poll notes that Iowa Democrats believe Sanders is “more honest and caring.” Meanwhile, an NBC news poll released last weekend showed Sanders leading Clinton in New Hampshire by 9 percentage points.
“Sanders has seized the momentum by offering a message more in line with disproportionately liberal primary and caucus voters,” wrote Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.
The Iowa caucuses are scheduled to be held on February 1, 2016.