A new poll from The Federalist/TIPP shows a tight presidential race in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, with Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the Keystone State. The poll of 774 likely voters in Pennsylvania, which was conducted from September 24 through September 26, found that 49 percent of respondents favored Biden compared to 44 percent for Trump.
The online-only poll of likely Pennsylvania voters found stark divides for the two candidates between men and women and urban and rural voters.
Rural voters overwhelmingly support Trump over Biden, 55 to 39 percent, while urban voters prefer Biden, 54 to 39 percent. The poll found that Biden has a double-digit lead among suburban voters, with 53 percent supporting Biden compared to 40 percent support for Trump.
A similar divide is evident between the sexes, with men overwhelmingly supporting Trump and women going for Biden in large numbers. The poll from The Federalist/TIPP found that Trump leads Biden among men, 55 to 38 percent, while Biden leads among women, 59-35.
In addition to asking voters for their personal preferences in the upcoming presidential election, the poll also asked respondents who they thought would win the election in November, as well as who they thought their neighbors were supporting. The poll from The Federalist/TIPP found that a plurality of voters believed Trump would win the election, with 42 percent predicting a Trump victory compared to 38 percent predicting a Biden victory in November. Twenty percent said they were unsure who would win. When asked who they thought their neighbors supported, 49 percent said Trump, while just 32 percent said they thought their neighbors would support Biden. Nineteen percent said they did not who their neighbors supported.
Undecided voters, while few in number, responded that if pushed, they leaned toward Trump by a margin of nearly 2-to-1, with 37 percent saying they preferred Trump compared to 18 percent who said they preferred Biden.
Respondents were also asked whether they were generally comfortable sharing their political preferences with others. One-third of independent voters said they felt uncomfortable sharing their political opinions, while nearly a quarter of Trump voters said they did not feel comfortable sharing their opinions. Even more striking was how many Trump voters said that they were reluctant to share their support of Trump’s policies in public. According to the poll, 55 percent of Trump voters agreed with the statement that while they personally agree with Donald Trump on a number of issues, they were reluctant to admit so in public. Among upper-class Trump supporters by income, that number soared to 76 percent.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead over Trump has been cut nearly in half over the last two months. While Biden led Trump in that average by over 8 percentage points in late July, the most recent average shows a Biden lead of roughly 4 percentage points.
With its 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has become integral to the election strategies of both candidates. In 2016, Trump narrowly defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by approximately 45,000 votes. It was the first time a Republican had carried the state since George H. W. Bush’s 2-point victory in the state in 1988.
You can find the full results and crosstabs from The Federalist/TIPP poll here.
ABOUT THE POLL:
TechnoMetrica conducted the Federalist/TIPP Poll using an online survey from September 24 to September 26. A sample of 909 registered voters participated in the nationwide study, of which TechnoMetrica identified 774 as likely voters. TechnoMetrica acquired the study sample from its network of panel partners. Upon the study completion, TechnoMetrica weighted the study dataset by gender, age, race, education, geographical region, and party to mirror known benchmarks such as the U.S. Census and the state’s registration data. The credibility interval (CI) for the survey is +/- 3.6 percentage points for the likely voter sample, meaning the study is accurate to within ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been surveyed. Subgroups based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region have higher credibility intervals due to smaller sample sizes.