Poll: If Election Were Held Today, Trump Would Beat Biden By A Lot

Poll: If Election Were Held Today, Trump Would Beat Biden By A Lot

Despite recent polls showing Joe Biden with a commanding lead over Donald Trump, a new shock poll reveals Americans aren’t quite as eager to hand over their freedom as it has appeared.
Elizabeth Vaughn
By

Despite the spate of recent polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, a new shock poll reveals Americans aren’t quite as eager to hand over their freedom as some have said.

According to RealClearPolitics’ latest aggregate of polls, Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 49.6 percent to 40.8. But a poll conducted for the Sunday Express by the Democracy Institute, a Washington-based think tank, reveals Americans aren’t buying the narrative the U.S. media are trying to advance.

Contrary to what the media would have us believe, 77 percent of the 1,500 likely voters surveyed do not view Mount Rushmore as a racist monument. When asked which of two phrases better fit their own thinking about race in America, 29 percent of participants indicated “Black Lives Matter,” and 71 percent marked “All Lives Matter.”

Most notably, rather than showing Biden with a sharp advantage, the survey forecasts a much tighter race, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the national popular vote. Moreover, the Democracy Institute predicts that if the election were held today, Trump would win 309 electoral votes and Biden 229.

State-by-state data isn’t conclusive, considering the limited sample size, but the data indicates Trump is ahead in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The poll puts Wisconsin in the Biden column, while giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Trump is considered less likable than Biden. When asked which candidate respondents would be more inclined to invite for a barbecue, 33 percent chose Trump, while 51 percent chose Biden. Sixteen percent said neither. When asked if they believe Biden is in the early stages of dementia, however, 55 percent answered yes, and 40 percent no.

As virtually all recent polls have found, the Democracy Institute identified the massive enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to only 43 percent of Biden supporters. That explains why 81 percent of Trump voters say their choice was “a positive vote for [their] candidate” rather than a “negative vote against his opponent.” For Biden, only 29 percent said it was a positive vote, while a whopping 71 percent said it was negative.

Notably, participants were asked if they were “comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote.” Only 29 percent of Trump voters said yes, versus 82 percent of Biden voters. This “shy” vote phenomenon was one of the reasons polls were so wrong in 2016. Many pro-Trumpers, wanting to avoid stigma, simply won’t tell a colleague or even a pollster whom they plan to vote for.

Fifty-two percent of those surveyed believe Trump will be reelected. While 4 percent of Trump supporters indicated their vote could change by Election Day, 12 percent of Biden backers said they could change their minds.

Other signs bode well for Trump. Although he had no serious competition for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination, his supporters have still turned out in large numbers throughout Republican primaries.

Just the News pointed out that in Pennsylvania, for example, 934,524 voted for Trump while only 914,904 voted for Biden. In Ohio, the candidates received 682,843 and 623,186 votes, respectively. In Florida, 86,000 more voted for Trump than for Biden. This pattern began early in the primary season, with Trump significantly outperforming past incumbent presidents in their equivalent primaries.

Moreover, not all of Bernie Sanders’s supporters will vote for Biden. As they did in 2016, some will stay home, and some will vote for Trump. NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reported that “in 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, according to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president’s total margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss.”

After the Russian collusion hoax, the impeachment hoax, and everything in between, corporate media has lost a lot of credibility. Americans have recently watched MSNBC’s Ali Velshi tell viewers the Minneapolis riots were “not generally speaking unruly” as an out-of-control fire raged in the background. They saw the Washington governor and Seattle mayor condone an “autonomous zone” set up by anarchists in the heart of the state’s largest city, and they’ve witnessed the toppling of statues of great Americans throughout the country.

It should come as no surprise that most voters do not believe Mount Rushmore is a racist monument, that America is an irredeemably racist nation that must be burned down and rebuilt, nor that Biden’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not everybody is ready to hop on board the socialism train. Thank God for that.

Note: This poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted July 1-3 by the Democracy Institute. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.

Elizabeth is a conservative political writer. Please view her work at redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn. Email Elizabeth at [email protected]

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