For all the ink spilled about Donald Trump’s narrow path to the 1,237 Republican delegates needed to clinch the Republican presidential nomination, a look at the numbers shows that Hillary Clinton is actually a weaker frontrunner than Trump. In fact, the bulk of Hillary’s current delegate lead comes not from rank-and-file voters, but from hand-picked “superdelegates,” party bosses who have given themselves outsized voting power.
Let’s take a look at the numbers.
According to the New York Times delegate tracker, Donald Trump has a lead of only 237 pledged delegates. He’s won 60 percent of the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination. Hillary leads Sanders by only 252 pledged delegates, even though the Democratic primary has awarded roughly twice as many delegates so far as the Republicans (it also requires nearly two times as many delegates to win). Without superdelegates, Hillary has only won 54 percent of the delegates she needs to win the Democratic nomination.
Donald Trump has won 20 states so far. Ted Cruz, who is currently in second place, has won nine states. On the Democratic side, Hillary has won 20 states so far, while her opponent, Bernie Sanders, has won 16. And after his victory in Wisconsin last night, Sanders has now won six states in a row.
Trump, Hillary proving to be historically weak front-runners via @NYPost
Hillary’s campaign has more money, more experience, more staff, better organization, higher name recognition, better favorable ratings, and a far less confrontational media environment than the one Trump faces, and yet when you add up all the votes that have been cast thus far, she’s further away from her party’s nomination than Trump is from his.
If not for superdelegates, which are themselves proof that the Democratic party prefers oligarchy to democracy when it comes to handling its own affairs, Hillary’s campaign would be revealed for what it is: a desperate attempt to drag an abysmal candidate over the finish line. Once you take into account the DNC belief that some people are more equal than others, Hillary’s delegate lead grows to 690: 1,748 for Hillary (469 superdelegates) and 1,058 for Sanders (31 superdelegates). That means that more than one out of every four delegates for Hillary comes not from rank-and-file voters, but from superdelegates. In fact, nearly 70 percent of Hillary’s lead over Sanders in the delegate race comes from superdelegates.
Both Trump and Hillary have leads of roughly 250 pledged delegates over their closest competitors. Both candidates have won 20 states. Trump, however, has accomplished this in the face of an enormous field and a party establishment that loathes him. Hillary is the party establishment, and she’s running against a kooky socialist who looks more like a public access television personality than a president, and she still can’t close the deal.
Democratic party bosses may be ready for Hillary, but it doesn’t look like her own party’s voters are there yet.