A new poll released by ABC News and the Washington Post with Langer Research Associates indicates that President Donald Trump’s overall approval rate in both Florida and Arizona settles around 47 percent. Among those polled who are most likely to vote, he maintains a 4-point lead in Florida, and a 1-point lead in Arizona.
Despite Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden’s leads in both states concerning handling the COVID-19 crisis, healthcare, race, and “discouraging violence at political protests,” Trump’s strongest margins were found in his ability to handle the economy and a recession with voters in Florida, granting him an 11-point lead over Biden. On the same issues in Arizona, Trump holds a 15-point lead over Biden. Trump also holds a 4-point lead in both states when it comes to “crime and safety.”
“As in the previous states and nationally, views of the economy’s condition and worries about catching the virus both independently predict candidate support, even controlling for partisanship, ideology and race/ethnicity. Were either economic or pandemic views to shift in the campaign’s closing weeks, the impact could be decisive,” the poll states.
With a margin of error of 4 points, the poll suggests that 31 percent of voters surveyed over the phone in Florida and 33 percent of voters in Arizona think that the economy is the single most important issue of the election, even over the pandemic. Of those voters who prioritize the economy, “more than eight in 10 favor Trump.” Currently, 54 percent of registered voters in Florida and 57 percent in Arizona approve of Trump’s approach to the current economic climate.
Aside from the economy, the poll also surveyed voters based on groupings. The results demonstrated that “while there’s a gender gap in both states, Biden’s support from women is comparatively muted” with 52 percent of women in Florida and Arizona claimed to support Biden. According to the poll, this is “about on par” with Hillary Clinton’s track record in 2016.
The poll also notes, “Biden is comparatively weak in Florida among college-educated white women,” adding that, “state context is important: Trump won college-educated white women in Florida by a broad 60-37 percent four years ago.”
And while Biden maintains leads with the Hispanic population in both states, the poll notes that historically, winning the Hispanic vote doesn’t necessarily mean you will win the state as seen in 2016.
Notably, the poll also demonstrates that voter presence in both Arizona and Florida is much stronger with the conservative base with 4 in 10 voters versus liberals who only account for 2 in 10 voters.