After decades of decline, American manufacturing has turned toward modest growth and reshoring: new investments, new factories, new jobs. The Trump administration, which has a mixed record of drawing attention to the change in the business environment, shares the credit with the entrepreneurs who are doing the rebuilding.
The admin did the most important thing government can do: It got out of the way. But a set of mixed economic signals suggests that government could get out of the way a lot more.
Start with the good news. A report released this week by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) describes new investments in manufacturing in every state, starting with the construction of a new aluminium plant in Alabama that will be built at the projected cost of $5 billion.
The manufacturing association credits H.R. 1, the Trump-promoted One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), for the arrival of growth and new investment. “By signing H.R. 1 into law,” the association states, “President Trump gave manufacturers the foundation, competitiveness and certainty to invest — in new facilities and equipment, jobs and wage growth, cutting-edge research and our global competitiveness.”
You can read a summary of tax incentives for manufacturers in H.R. 1 here, from the tax consultancy and wealth management firm Plante Moran. Among the tax incentives in the bill were 100 percent tax deductions for new manufacturing facilities and the “full expensing” of research and development costs. “The OBBB offers a powerful set of tools to reduce tax liability and reinvest in growth,” the firm concludes.
Another piece of the same bill focused on tax cuts for workers and families, like limits on taxes for tips and overtime, in what were called Working Families Tax Cuts.
While the trend is positive, manufacturing growth remains distinctly modest. As NAM reports elsewhere, American manufacturers added 3,000 jobs in June, but manufacturing employment “has been in decline over the past few years and is slightly below pre-pandemic levels.”
While manufacturers keep announcing new investments, the St. Louis Fed shows total domestic spending on manufacturing construction declining overall against 2024. And another tracker from the St. Louis Fed shows that total industrial production in the United States is still below 2008 levels.
The Big Four accounting firm Deloitte publishes an annual “manufacturing industry outlook,” and its 2026 report is a mixed bag. Incomplete trade deals and punitive tariffs that raised the cost of component goods made 2025 a year of uncertainty and contraction for American manufacturers, according to Deloitte, but “there are opportunities for US manufacturers on the horizon in 2026.”
“The passage of a major tax and spending bill, commonly called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, includes several tax provisions that could lower costs and encourage manufacturing investment,” Deloitte concludes. “The announcement of additional revised US trade deals, such as those struck with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, could help reduce uncertainty, while interest rate cuts might help reignite demand for manufactured goods.”
Ongoing volatility in energy prices from an extended war with Iran may add more uncertainty for producers.
The administration credits H.R. 1 for the evidence of recent progress. “President Trump pledged to revive American manufacturing and industry, and the Working Families Tax Cuts is helping him deliver,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told The Federalist. “Key provisions in this historic legislation like full equipment expensing complement the Administration’s other policies like deregulation, energy abundance, and tariffs that have helped fuel trillions of dollars in manufacturing investments.”
President Trump has declared this “Made in America Week.”
