Former President Donald Trump and North Carolina Republicans appear poised to win the Tar Heel State’s 2024 elections, according to newly released poll.
Conducted from March 6-7 by the John Locke Foundation/Cygnal, the survey among 600 likely North Carolina voters shows Trump enjoying an early lead over Democrat President Joe Biden heading into the 2024 general election. If the contest were held today, 45.2 percent of respondents said they would either “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump, while just 39.8 percent said they’d support Biden. Meanwhile, 9.4 percent indicated they would vote for “someone else” and 5.5 percent remain undecided.
Likely voters also favored GOP congressional candidates over Democrat ones by nearly 6 points (48.3 to 42.5 percent).
The results spell potentially bad news for Biden, whose approval rating is heavily underwater in the Tarheel State. Only 37.5 percent of those surveyed said they approve of Biden’s job as president, compared to 58.9 percent who disapprove of his performance. These figures come in addition to 65.6 percent of respondents saying the U.S. is headed on the “wrong track,” compared to just 26.4 percent who said the country is moving in the “right direction.”
Unlike Biden, North Carolina Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper enjoys a net-positive approval rating among likely voters (48.9 percent “approval” vs. 42.9 percent “disapproval”).
Republicans additionally appear to hold an advantage over their Democrat competitors in North Carolina’s state-level elections. According to the poll, GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is leading Democrat Josh Stein by nearly 5 points (43.8 to 39 percent), with 14.8 percent of voters still undecided. Republican attorney general candidate Dan Bishop is also polling ahead of Democrat Jeff Jackson by a slimmer, 2.1-point margin (40.6 to 38.5 percent), with more than 20 percent of those surveyed still undecided.
Republican state legislators — who currently hold supermajorities in the House and Senate — also appear poised to maintain control of the General Assembly. According to the survey, 48.7 percent of respondents indicated they’d vote for the GOP candidate on the ballot, compared to 42.6 percent who said they’d support the Democrat candidate. Meanwhile, Republican Supreme Court candidate Jefferson Griffin leads Democrat Allison Riggs by 2 points (41.4 to 39.4 percent), although 19.3 percent of voters remain undecided.
The newly released poll also shines a light on what issues are top-of-mind among the North Carolina electorate. When asked which issue was most important to them when voting in the state’s recent primary elections, 25 percent of respondents said immigration, indicating a significant level of concern over the Biden-facilitated border invasion. A smaller percentage (17.8 percent) rated the economy as their top issue, while 12.7 percent said the same for abortion.
“Biden may be able to win another four years in the White House without North Carolina, but Donald Trump almost certainly cannot,” John Locke Foundation President Donald Bryson told The Federalist. “However, this poll starts the former president off on strong footing, with the prospect of picking up additional Republican support on Capitol Hill from the Old North State.”
John Locke Foundation 2024 … by The Federalist
